Earlier today, the ULI Terwilliger Center released the 2021 Home Attainability Index. The 2021 Index is an easily accessible compilation of housing and equity-related metrics that can set a data-informed foundation for regional discussions of housing needs and solutions. Specifically, the Index provides a high-level snapshot of the extent to which a housing market provides a range of housing choices attainable to the regional workforce, with an intentional focus on issues related to racial, socioeconomic, and intraregional disparities and inequities. This research release includes three publications: an interactive data spreadsheet to explore Index data and create customized charts and graphs; a national summary report, and a research brief on Housing, Health, and the COVID-19 Crisis. All materials are available for download on the ULI Knowledge Finder website.
A high-level review of the 2021 Index data shows that:
The most severe cost burdens among middle-income households are predominantly found in the most-populous regions.
However, there is a nationwide lack of attainable homes for many members of the workforce that is not limited to the most vibrant U.S. metropolitan economies.
In particular, there is a national struggle for lower-income households to find attainable rental units.
Segregation—both by income and race—cuts across market types and geographies, and high housing costs threaten to worsen racial and socioeconomic disparities.
Any release of housing research would be remiss if it did not consider the impacts of COVID-19 and associated economic disruption. Despite data limitations, it is possible to extrapolate some COVID-19-related impacts through research on previous conditions and trends, supplemented with newer data. In reviewing existing literature and analyzing 2021 Index data, the Terwilliger Center found the following:
“Preexisting conditions”—from the perspectives of health, household finances, and social equity—are closely linked to the relative impacts of the pandemic.
The center’s Occupational Analysis shows that leading up to the crisis, frontline workers, health workers, and workers in occupations particularly vulnerable to income disruption struggled to afford modest rental housing in most of the 107 regions in the 2021 Index data set.
These preexisting disparities by income and race have been exacerbated by the COVID-19 crisis, with lower wage earners (who are disproportionately Black and Hispanic) more likely to work in high-contact jobs. Many of those jobs have been lost, and those people who continue to work are at risk of contracting the virus.
Though local, state, and federal interventions have mitigated some housing-related challenges, a significant number of households have accrued large amounts of deferred rent/mortgage payments, raising the longer-term risk of an eviction/foreclosure crisis.
From a housing market perspective, a significant amount of conflicting or opaque data exists on the long-term impacts of the pandemic on consumer preferences and housing demand.
Conversations about post-COVID housing markets have been dominated by elements of consumer preferences regarding location (in the context of changed commuting patterns, unit size, and amenities). However, these conversations focus on households with the financial means to have such choices, which is unlikely to be the case for many whose lives and jobs have been significantly disrupted by the pandemic. Many households will struggle to simply maintain housing and pay off accrued rent or mortgage debts and will find tenure choice out of reach if prices rise and lending standards tighten.
This research was developed by Michael A. Spotts in his role as the Senior Research Fellow with the Terwilliger Center, with research support from Neighborhood Fundamentals. Julie Pagaduan served as the research and data analyst, and Subira Brown provided research assistance.